mpegvideo: simplify REBASE_PICTURE

Always evaluate to NULL when the source Picture is not located in the
MpegEncContext.picture array. That will only happen for
next/last_picture_ptr when updating the thread context during h264 frame
threaded decoding, where they will point to elements of ref_list. Since
ref_list is not copied during updating the context and is invalid until
it is constructed for the current slice, there is no point in doing
anything complicated with next/last_picture_ptr, as they will get
updated when the ref_list is filled.